1 Week of Extreme Bearish Seasonality Left For SPX: Sept 26th Plan
In my newsletter exactly 1 week ago, I said: “ES is entering the back half of September which is (on average) one of the most bearish/volatile phases of the year”. While I trade price action *only* (extreme emphasis here), seasonality certainly delivered on cue this week putting in one of the ugliest weeks of the year. Unfortunately for any bulls that are still left - it continues for another week.
In Thursdays newsletter, I wrote: “Bear case begins directly down on the fail of 3760 and targets 3750, 3725, 3700 (the target)”. After this triggered, it was a day of non-stop selling - a “knife catching” day which hit 3700 target, undercut it, then recovered late day to put in a capitulation/hammer candle. Bears aren’t likely aren’t done with this market, but there is setup for a relief bounce.
This takes us to Monday. I expect another week of volatile, bi-directional trading. In today’s newsletter, I’ll be talking how I traded Friday’s volatile action via Thursdays plan (the good, the bad, and the ugly), talk about how far I see Friday’s late day bounce going, then discuss the triggers for the next leg down and trade plan for Monday. Today’s update is a longer one.