140 Point Vertical Rally For SPX - When Is The 1st Deep Pullback? July 17th Plan
NOTE: This is a re-send of the newsletter for Monday July 17th, originally sent out on Friday afternoon, for those who did not receive.
This week has been an exceptional week and it is the first time in 2023 where I have been in a single, uninterrupted position for nearly the entire week (Sunday until late Friday). As readers recall, my position was originally entered Sunday evening at 4420 (as provided in last Friday’s newsletter), with additions ~4440, ~4518, 4547. Why did this trade go nearly all week without being stopped?
Because the market dictated it, not me: Since Mondays low, ES incredibly went the entire week without a single, solitary 4hr candle closing below its prior candles low - the steepest possible manifestation of an uptrend. This steep uptrend was no coincidence as usual, nor was the fact it started at 4420. 4420 was support of a perfect, 3 week ascending triangle, with 4485 breakout level, 4575 target as discussed a week ago. Like all moves, it does not require a complex understanding of macroeconomics or option market dynamics to play these (in fact, those hinder). Only the ability to draw lines, tune out noise, and stick to a disciplined trade management process.
There is no doubt though that this move has been extreme, and euphoric, and that comes with risks. In today’s newsletter I’ll talk about my approach to counter-trending, break down some of this weeks entry setups via my system, then provide the actionable trade plan for Monday.