200dma Has Been Lost in ES: What Now? April 7th Chart and Plan

Today was the release of the FOMC’s minutes at 2pm and it had all the features of a classic Fed data day: Selloff in the morning, big fake rally at 2pm right after the data came out, trap, then sell lower. I warned about this yesterday writing:

“In summary for tomorrow: FOMC minutes day so best to size down and watch out for an initial fake move after the minutes at 2pm”. This is what happened, with ES initially trapping to the upside to back-test the 200dma before selling to a new low for the day. This happens the exact same almost every FOMC day, and every FOMC minutes day.

Ultimately though, this is all just noise. The *real* story is that after 9 full days above the 200dma, ES lost it. Does this mean the bull case is over? Not at all, but it complicates it. Here’s what I’m looking for tomorrow