2023 Starts With Big Volatility; SPX At Major Support. January 4th Plan

After a relatively “slow” 2 week holiday trading period, ES started 2023 with major volatility right out of the gate from last nights futures open. As readers know, I got long Friday afternoon at ~3820, writing: “My lean is as long as 3820 continues holding (3850 ideally does not fail now) that we can push further to 3895, 3915, 3945”.

Futures opened with a bang, hitting that 3895 1st target, retracing, jumping to 3907, retracing, jumping back to 3895, before melting down back to (no surprise): 3820. As readers know, I have discussed the importance of this level for over week as it is support of a major, multi-week triangle pattern, and failure of which starts the next leg down.

Despite immense volatility today, we are ultimately still in the same range we have been in since mid-December. This leads to the same question - what way does it break? In todays newsletter, I’ll talk the big picture, discuss how I trade/traded complex sessions like today, then provide the actionable trade plan for tomorrow.