6 Green Days In A Row For SPX. Can July 4th Bullish Seasonals Keep It Going? July 1st Plan

Last week and into this week was one for the record books and we saw the power of simple technical analysis at work. Over a week ago, on Friday June 20th, I had been speaking daily about how ES had spent the prior two weeks building out a massive bullish triangle with support at 5979 and resistance at 6081. This pattern was ready to burst, but it just needed one last thing: A catalyst. Remember, the typical institutional accumulation process follows similar steps: Bearish headline hits, price flushes to a major support shelf where lows are clustered. Price then loses the low, and institutions then grab all the liquidity underneath the low (shorts rushing in, stops on long). Price then reverses, springs back above the low and a squeeze starts. I hunt this pattern everyday, and its called the Failed Breakdown.

Last Sunday evening, we got just that. The US attacked Iran, ES flushed down to support of that triangle, lost it, recovered. We got long at this point (and the setup was provided to readers both in advance, and in real time). Fast forward one week later, and ES was +280 points from last weeks low to last weeks high, for one of the most lucrative longs this year and we have been on board for the entirety of it. I provided this setup way back on Friday June 20th at 4pm, when we were 6020, by stating: “My general lean is always to defer to the trend, until it ends. 5978-82 to 6081= a range (descending triangle) with 6050 a key magnet inside. My lean is we work back up to 6050, then 6081. Above there, we can try breakout to 6099, 6124, 6143.” By Tuesday, we got to 6143.

I was looking higher from there, and I wrote last Wednesday, “My general lean is always to defer to the trend. ES broke out a two week triangle on Monday 5979-82 to 6081. Bulls want to hold 6140 (with any traps below being bought) which sets up the next leg up to 6162, 6172, then 6208.” We got to 6208+ by Friday morning, before ES finally got its first micro-dip Friday afternoon, driven by more “Tariff” headlines.

This would provide yet another dip to buy. I wrote Friday at 4pm: “My lean is, as always, to defer to the trend. ES wants to flag out 6162-72 to 6233 now. This sets up the next leg to 6250, 6279, then 6300+ when ready” ES wasted no time here and by this morning, ES tagged 6250. We then spent the day chopping/cooling off, before resuming higher late day.

We are into a short holiday trading week now with Thursday and Friday both short days. This is a seasonally strong week, posting double the average weekly return, and green 80% of the last 10 years. Can bulls keep it going despite the previous strength? In today’s newsletter I’ll talk this, I’ll do a deep dive into my trailing stop methodology and discuss in detail exactly how it works and how it kept me long for entirety of last week. Finally, I’ll talk the actionable trade plan for Tuesday.