7 Upside Days In A Row For SPX: Largest Run Since The Election. When Does It Dip? Jan 23 Plan

While 2024 was a fantastic year for bulls, 2025 started off with a run that will be tough to beat, and we were on board for nearly every point of it so far. This leg up began back on Monday January 13th, and a clear technical cause: Since Mid-November, ES built out a textbook, 2 month “megaphone” pattern with support down at 5810 or so. As I’ve written since January 13th, technical analysis 101 would come into play: When support of a megaphone defends, price will gun for resistance. In this case, resistance is at 6200+ and we made it a staggering 200+ points from last Monday’s original long.

I wrote last Tuesday at 4pm: “My general lean is that a relief bounce leg began on Monday by testing megaphone support, and is underway. This would target 5934-36, 5965, then 5996/6004 if bulls really want to move”. By last Thursday, we got to 6004.

I was then looking for more. I wrote on Friday at 4pm: “If I had to provide a lean though, its always to defer to momentum: As long bulls can hold 6005 lowest (and if they are really in control, we won’t get close), we can 6066, 6074, then 6087.”. By yesterdays close, we had tagged 6087 which was essentially the regular hours high.

And into today? More. I wrote at the close yesterday: “My general lean is always just to defer to the trend until it ends. Bulls control above 6016-20 with 6071 defending in the case of the ultra bull case. 6105, 6115, then 6137-45 are next macro targets”. We got to 6137-45 today, then put in a dip.

This makes it 7 straight days of upside for ES, which in point terms is now the largest run since the collosal 325 point election week rally. Is ES done for now? In today’s newsletter I’ll talk this, I’ll do a deep dive into a series of two monster Failed Breakdowns (my core setup) we had yesterday which ultimately propelled the leg up we saw from 5996 Tuesday low into 6105+ last night. Then, I’ll discuss the actionable trade plan for Thursday.