A 4 Month Downtrend Just Broke Out In SPX - Where Is The Target? November 15th Plan
On Friday, my newsletter was entitled: “SPX Is About To Break Out A 4 Month Downtrend”. Today, we saw exactly what I meant by this and just what a 4 month trendline channel breakout looks like. With CPI as the catalyst, ES exited the downtrend this morning and went into an 100 point squeeze. This may seem like Deja Vu to readers, because last Novembers CPI (2022) saw nearly the exact same reaction, but for +200 points.
As readers know, I have been long since 4380s on Friday morning, writing yesterday: “I am still holding my risk free runner and will hold into CPI as my cost basis on this is quite low” and this trade has paid off substantially for over 100 points in runner exposure. All day yesterday, ES also built a bullish “megaphone” pattern all day which set the table for this move. I wrote yesterday: “the megaphone discussed above has higher targets. The bull case would look something like ping pong within the structure 4400-4439, then push higher to 4460-63, then 4480-85.” we got to 4485, and far beyond.
The run continues for ES and there is now been only 1 proper red day the entire month of November so far, with ES kicking in over-drive today by breaking out a multi-month downtrend, ending it. Now what - where is the next dip buy? In today’s newsletter I’ll talk this, dive into the setup that caused this rally, then discuss the actionable trade plan for tomorrow.