As those following me long-term (both on Twitter and in this newsletter know), I have often spoken of the Friday 2PM rally for several years (one can even Google Adam Mancini Friday afternoon rally and find it) and it made a comeback today in big form. This refers to a tendency for SPX to squeeze into the close Friday and was a major feature in 2020 & 2021. It turns sentiment maximum bullish into the weekend but with very mixed predictability for the next week.
Despite the close today, its important to zoom out. ES was bouncing in the same range all week: Generally between 4280, 4320-30, and 4400-4420 with price just ping ponging between these levels. Despite the bullish close, ES did not only not clear its 200dma at 4427, but it also didn’t manage to close a single day above its prior days high all week. In other words: While sentiment online felt like ES was breaking to ATHs, nothing happened all week. Early next week will be fairly key, but I have a feeling bears aren’t quite done yet, even if price squeezes up another level next week.