Are July 4th Fireworks Coming For SPX? July 3rd/4th Plan

The last two weeks have been - in some small sense - historic in ES. In my newsletter exactly one week ago, I wrote: “As I will discuss today (and have already discussed for weeks) almost all the price action since early May has been entirely driven by a singular level: 5519”. While I knew this was a key level and one that I would be basing my trading on, it truly overperformed and this level tested/and or failed broke down an incredible 17 times in the couple weeks.

Every single time we probed below this level, price - within a few hours maximum - reclaimed it and ignited a tradeable short squeeze. It is for this reason that I have called the 5519 level an “ATM Machine”. My entire system is built around failed breakdowns and “trading the traps”. My entries go *after* the traps, and this 5519 level has paid out more in failed breakdowns than any level in the past couple years and it did so again this morning. I wrote yesterday: “One could try the failed breakdown of today’s low 5506”. This morning, we tested 5503, put in the failed breakdown of yesterdays 5506 low, and longs were triggered for a 50+ point move, taking us back above 5519 to 5560 by the close

But where does that leave us? As I wrote yesterday: “ES is building a triangle between 5519-22 and 5582….The bull case would involve this continuing to defend, perhaps ping ponging more 5519-5541, then working up the triangle. This would probably see ES run to 5560, dip again, then tackle triangle resistance.” Today, we tagged 5560 by the close. Can ES run to resistance now, then break out to new ATHs? In todays newsletter I’ll talk this, I’ll do a deep dive into my core setup: The failed breakdown as the past few days have been a masterclass in just how powerful this setup can be. Finally, I’ll discuss the actionable tradeplan for the next two holiday sessions.