Biggest Green Month Of 2024 For SPX. Can December Keep It Up? Dec 2nd Plan
My last newsletter was entitled: “Will Thanksgiving Bring A New All Time High For SPX? Nov 28/29 Plan”. The answer (as nobody reading this newsletter will be surprised of), was yes.
This week was a huge win for simple technical analysis. As I wrote yesterday, we are constantly bombarded with endless noise as traders: Media, “macro”, analyst opinions. These are all distractions designed to part us from our money, and seperate us from the only thing we need to know: What insitutions are doing *right now*, so we can follow. To know this, we only need the price chart, where institutions leave their footprints of supply, demand, accumulation, and distribution. My three core setups each represent 1 footprint.
As written about extensively, institutions had spent the last two weeks accumulating which printed on the price chart as a perfect bull flag at 5988, which we broke out on Sunday at the open. I wrote on Tuesday at 4pm: “I’ve made it brutally clear since the open on Sunday - we started this week with a bull flag breakout at 5988, and therefore, bulls are in control. Its that simple - just trail up those stops on longs and keep getting paid. Markets do not need to be made more complex”
This breakout did not progress in a straight line though and after an initial push to ~6040 on Monday, ES had built another consolidation base from 5993-88 to 6040 or so. I wrote in my last newsletter on Wednesday at 4pm (when ES was 6010): “5993-6040=a chop range and as long as that support remains in tact, ES is simply building structure for another leg up. This could look something like test 6025-28, perhaps dip once more, then test 6045-50, and perhaps a final one there. From there the next leg higher targets 6069, then 6089 as 1st stops”. This played out to perfection, and we got to 6050+ today.
This concludes November, which has been the biggest green month of 2024 so far. As some may be aware, there is often a “hangover” effect seasonally the week after Thanksgiving. Can ES keep the strength going? In today’s newsletter, I’ll talk this and discuss the setups for next week. I will also do a deep dive into the setup that caused the strength we saw since Monday, as we saw a rare “A+” example of my core setup: The Failed Breakdown. You can use this failed breakdown as a standard through which to compare others.