Breakdown Friday For SPX: Big Week Upcoming. August 22nd Plan
My last newsletter was entitled “SPX Coiled Very Tight For a Move” and we got it on Friday (though mostly overnight and into the morning). We spent late last week chopping endlessly between 4270 and 4295 for the most part and as I wrote on Thursday, consolidations like this *always* resolve with a directional move. I spoke about how 4280 loss would trigger to 4230 minimum, and ES closed Friday at ~4230
This brings us to next week, where technicals and event catalysts collide to create an important inflection point. Thursday and Friday are the Jackson Hole conference - Powell speaks - and this coincides with ES only 30 points away from the 4200-4190 level, which was a critical breakout point in August and important, now multi-year level. Not only this, but this occurs as ES heads into the most bearish month of the year seasonally
In todays newsletter, I’m going to talk about Friday’s trading as it illustrates how I trade breakouts/breakdowns. I’ll then talk about why there’s still some sell risk ahead, and what the RSI says about the broader move into September. This + Mondays plan.