Bulls Survive The CPI Report, But Can They Run? March 15th Plan

In yesterdays newsletter, I talked about how heading into CPI, ES had put in my core trading pattern, “the failed breakdown”. I wrote: “My lean would be we can hold 3880-85 and take another run to 3960-63”. This played out almost perfectly: Right after CPI, we dipped to 3885 to the exact tick, then put in an 80+ point squeeze to 3972 before selling off hard in the afternoon.

There is also no coincidence at all why 3885 held to the tick today - as discussed in my prior newsletter, this is the rising trendline support extending all the way back to 2009’s bear market low shown in the below chart. Despite the intraday post-CPI volatility though, ES remains stuck in the same 3970-3885 general range it has spent most the time in since last Thursday. The breakout of this range will provoke the next multi-day trend.

The question is, what way? In today’s newsletter, I’ll discuss this, breakdown the mechanics of the failed breakdown setup, then provide the actionable trade plan for tomorrows session.