Calm Before the Storm: SPX Chops Ahead of a Big News Week: Oct 11 Plan

Its been a full weekend + a trading day since last newsletter was sent out on Friday, but traders just checking the price late Friday afternoon, then Sunday evening when futures opened, then this afternoon, would think nothing happened: ES has been stuck at the ~3630 level since Friday. This view would be somewhat mistaken though: We saw big swings up to 3660, down to 3600, all to end up in the exact same spot as markets are stuck in extreme chop zone.

Its no coincidence why. ES is stuck at a major support cluster, with both the critical June lows around here, as well as the pivotal 200 Week Moving average just below. In addition to this, we have a very catalyst heavy week incoming. We have PPI and FOMC minutes on Wednesday, then the all-important CPI on Thursday (last CPI started a 600 point selloff).

When you combine major support, with the most volatility in years, plus multiple event catalysts, I expect a very complex and difficult week of trading. In today’s newsletter, I’ll discuss how I traded todays complete mess via yesterday plan (the good, the bad, and the ugly), talk whether the bear market rally that started Oct has legs, then talk tomorrows actionable trade plan.