Can SPX Finally Break Out Next Week? April 17th Plan

As readers know, I got long at 4125ish on Thursday and this resulted in a 60+ point rally into 4172-80 major resistance heading into Friday, and I wrote yesterday: “We have rallied 65 points in one session today though, so there is elevated risk of corrective or consolidative action tomorrow”. After an easy trend day Thursday, we got both corrective and consolidative action Friday, with ES spiking hard in the morning, selling hard, then chopping much of the day.

This week saw a fairly wide 90 point range, but despite this, and despite major catalysts such as CPI, PPI, and FOMC minutes, ES ultimate went nowhere, closing right in the middle of the range and barely changed for the week. This remains a rangebound day traders market for the past two weeks, and it is likely setting up a late April trend move. This remains a market for day traders running a disciplined, level-to-level systematic trade management process.

In todays newsletter, I’ll discuss the failed breakout setup (my core pattern) that we saw this morning which triggered the selloff today, talk the broader pattern forming here and its bias, then provide the actionable trade plan for Monday.