Can SPX Keep The Relief Rally Going Next Week? September 11th Plan

Yesterday, my newsletter was entitled: “Three Red Days In A Row For SPX. Can It Manage A Green Friday?” and the answer was yes. The first week of September (which is notoriously the most volatile, bearish, difficult month of the year seasonally) started off in character with 4493 key support cracking on Wednesday to trigger shorts for what was 2 day flush. Today/yesterday, it mounted its 1st post-selloff relief rally for around 40 points.

As readers recall, I was looking for a relief bounce today, with 4448 entry provided to get long for it. I wrote yesterday: “This relief bounce is in play direct as long as 4448-50 continues holding and the technical basis for this relief rally is that ES put in a failed breakdown of yesterdays low this morning”..concluding yesterdays newsletter by writing my lean was ES “try a relief bounce to 4466-73, possible dip, then up to 4485-90”. This played out very well and we ran to 4466-73 overnight, got the dip, then revisited it before returning to (no surprise) ~4448 near the close.

ES has finally managed a green day, but its only early September and with CPI, FOMC, and regular September noise still ahead - one can be almost certain the volatility is *far* from over. Will the relief rally continue Monday? In today’s newsletter, I’ll talk this, I’ll then do a deep dive into the setup that created today’s relief bounce (my core setup), then provide the actionable trade plan for Monday.