Carbon Copy Of Last Week For SPX: Green All Week Then Friday Sell. What Now? Feb 10 Plan

NOTE: This is a resend of the newsletter for Monday February 10th, originally sent out on Friday, for those who did not receive.

This week was an exact carbon copy of last week. Readers recall last week started with a gap down on Sunday, then deep 150+ point selloff. This then setup a Failed Breakdown (remember after deep sells, price always puts in my core setup, the Failed Breakdown). This got me long last Monday to fill the Sunday gap and the long lasted through to Friday. Each day last week, ES saw 1-2 flash dips, which resulted in 1-2 Failed Breakdowns per day for us to long. Then last Friday, we collapsed on Tariff headlines.

Roll the same tape this week. We opened on Sunday with a 75 point gap down, which setup a long at 6:10PM Sunday evening - in this case, it was again a macro Failed Breakdown of last weeks 5949 low where we flushed it off this Sundays open, and recovered. My immediate goal for this was to fill Sunday’s opening gap. I wrote Monday 4pm: “If I had to give a lean it is always to defer to the immediate trend. This means as long as ES can flag out above 6004-08 or 6020 ideally, we can push to fully fill the opening gap to 6066.” By Monday/Tuesday, we got this.

This 6066-70 was a big shelf on Monday/Tuesday, and from there, I was looking for ES to retrace more of the deep sell that began late last Friday. I wrote Wedneday 4pm: “Its been an incredible run and I am now up 130 points on my runner from Sundays macro Failed Breakdown. My general lean is always to defer to the trend until proven otherwise. Bulls want to hold 6066-70 ideally. This keeps 6099, 6115, then 6125-30 live.” Yesterday, we back-tested 6070 *to the tick* and this morning we hit 6124.

It is always a marvel that ES gets hit with big headlines right near resistances, but that’s what we saw around 10am today, and ES got hit with a now-typical Friday “Tape Bomb” right as we were approaching 6125-30, taking us down - just like last week - to close in the 6050s.

Can bulls break this cycle, or are we headed for another gap down and sell Sunday? In todays newsletter I’ll talk this, I’ll do a comprehensive run down of every single Failed Breakdown we had this week. This is highly educational and gives one of the best looks yet at all the variants of Failed Breakdowns we had. If you recognize all these real-time, you understand Failed Breakdowns. Finally, I’ll discuss the actionable trade plan for Monday.