Dec 2nd Quick Evening Update

Quick chart update here after this afternoons melt-down as there’s been some changes. As of writing though, the now routine overnight rally in futures is underway. My core support to watch was 4480-90 and we bounced about 7 points shy of it but given the volatility I consider this a hit. There is also a new channel formed in red at todays low, from the November highs, that is worth watching (chart below)

As of now price rallying off support - that 4490 area was support of the core rising channel from March 2020 (orange dotted) and as you can see, a new channel has formed in red. Given these supports, its quite possible bulls try a recovery that actually lasts a day or two from here. Main overhead resistance now is 4565 and this should backtest overnight or tomorrow. To prevent a repeat of the last week, bulls are going to want to either power right through with force, or pullback gently and flag (not retracing more than say 61% of the overnight rally), then power higher to next level up at 4610-15 (rest of lvls shown in chart). I think there is a good chance this scenario plays out the rest of the week.

BEAR CASE: If 4565 hits and rejects sharply back below 4515ish say its quite likely the lows get retested and we drop to 4435 next down, where I would certainly be a buyer. Bulls also want to watch out for level recaptures and failures - for example if we pop above 4565, hit 4610, then fail back below 4565, thats also a trigger to look out below.

As I say in every post, we are in a sell the bounce market, and remains so until proven otherwise. This means some levels need to reclaim, starting with 4565, then 4610-15. Bulls can start to breath some relief then.

Will post again tomorrow night