Did Bulls Finally Drop The Ball Today In SPX; What Now? Nov 30th Plan
Tomorrow is the final trading day of what has been an exceptionally bullish November. While November is the second most bullish month of the year (behind April) this one far exceeding the norm with ES rallying an incredible 470 points in a single month so far, with only a small handful of red days. December is also seasonally bullish, but less so.
We spent the final week before today building a tight base in ES from 4555-4575 for the most part. I concluded yesterdays newsletter by writing the following: “We remain in ultra chop 4555 to 4575-80 and the market is waiting on any catalyst to break it out (GDP tomorrow is 1 possibility). My general lean is as long as 4555 holds, we can keep basing 4555-4575, then try a breakout to a new high (4580, 4597+)”. We saw exactly this today, and broke out/ran to 4597 which was - to the exact tick - the high of day. Afterwards though (and perhaps fitting being the final day of the month) this breakout failed and we returned right back to square one at the 4555 level into the close.
Did finally bulls drop the ball today to setup a dip? In today’s newsletter, I’ll talk this. I’ll then go over the setup that got me long at 4555 for the rally into 4597 today. I’ll conclude by discussing the actionable trade plan for tomorrow.