Final Week of 2022 Underway, Can SPX End Green? December 28th

The final week of 2022 is underway. As readers know, I was long Friday into the weekend with a 3900 first target. We spiked to 3900 overnight to hit target, but by the time regular hours opened ES had retraced. I wrote Friday: “I do expect more “Mode 2” chop days and I will be trading light all week” and this was much of today before the late day rally.

As everyone knows, this is now the seasonal Santa Rally Week which has historically been green 80% of years since 1950. Today was a terrible start, putting in a red day, and this is notable considering the day after Christmas is statistically the strongest day of the year. As I say repetitively though - I trade the price, not the seasonality.

Which leads us to the next question - what does price suggest then? We have now been going sideways for well over a week. In today’s newsletter, I’ll discuss the pattern forming here/its bias, my favorite setup (the failed breakdown), and the actionable plan for tomorrow