First Green Day in 4 For SPX. Another One Incoming? August 15th Plan

We are now half-way through August, and the “bearish first half of August” seasonality was certainly a factor. Incredibly - prior to today - August has had only one green daily candle on Monday August 7th. It put in 4 consecutive red candles before that, and afterwards it also put in 4 consecutive red candles with the final four days of last week being red. 4 consecutive red days has been very rare this year.

Despite this though, traders probably wouldn’t feel like last week ended with 4 red in a row because ultimately, price hasn’t gone anywhere, with ES spending all week stuck around the 4493 magnet level (with excursions above and below, only to return there). Since Thursday, we have based under it and I wrote yesterday: “The zone between 4457-64 and 4493 is all noise and will take a great amount of nimbleness to trade” and this certainly described the action since Sunday’s open with ES ping ponging between 4465ish and 4493 mostly.

I concluded my newsletter yesterday by writing: “My loose lean is that we can continue to base above that 4457 level and below 4492, then try to push up the levels again to 4509 then 4518”. This played out nicely and we are only 1.25 points off from 4509 target as of writing. ES has yet to put in 2 consecutive green days this month, will tomorrow be the first? In today’s newsletter I’ll talk this, breakdown the setup that started this rare green day, and then provide the actionable trade plan for tomorrow