FOMC Tomorrow. Can SPX Bulls Survive FOMC Volatility? June 18 Plan

Note: The levels below here now all reflect the new September 2025 ES levels (ESU2025). ES has rolled from June to September.

Almost every newsletter since April 6th now, I’ve started the same way: By reminding readers ES is in an uptrend, or what I call a “buy dips” regime. Even for day traders, the broad trend is critical to be aware of. Every trader is looking for an edge, but the trend is the most readily available, easily accessible of all edges. In a trend, we know that price by definition will do one thing (go up) more than another (go down). We can structure everything around this.

Last Thursday, ES got tested with a larger dip than usual due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and last Thursday evening, we flushed 125 points rapidly on this. As readers know though, my edge is trading Failed Breakdowns and Failed Breakdowns are foundational to how institutions accumulate longs. It is their “footprint” on the chart. My job is to follow. When do institutions love to long? Right after bearish headlines, when price takes out a low, everyone is calling for the end of the world. We saw this last Thursday evening.

I wrote last Tuesday at 4pm that “I especially like the Failed Breakdown of last Thursdays 5981 low especially if we tag 5978 first.” What did we see Thursday evening? Exactly this. We tagged 5978, recovered the Thursday June 5th 5981 low, and longs triggered for a 100+ point leg up to 6081 to Friday’s high. For those who missed that though, this Sunday brought another Failed Breakdown. Bearish headlines over the weekend gapped us lower to 6k. Everyone knows the drill from here. I wrote Friday at 4pm: “In a strong bull case, ES won’t even re-test 5977. Rather, it will base out above 6027 (with traps below being bought). From there, its back to 6052/6059, then up to 6081, 6099.” At 6pm Sunday, we trapped below 6027 down to 6k, recovered, and longs triggered. We hit all the above targets, getting to 6099 by 10am yesterday. It remained the high into today.

Ultimately though, ES had been stuck in a huge range since June 5th, mostly 6099 to 5979, with 6050 a key pivot in the middle. No true next trend leg could come until that range breaks. I stated yesterday that: “My general lean is always to defer to the trend. 6099 to 5979 is a massive range we’ve built since June 5th, with 6050 a key level in the middle. This can easily fill out more.” and “In any slightly larger sells, bulls ideally want to hold 6045-50 though.” Last night, ES got slammed with more Iran headlines, and we sold down to 6050, which held 3x overnight, producing a morning rally to 6081. This afternoon, we flushed it again.

Tomorrow however is FOMC day and FOMC + geopolitics should make for good volatility. Can the lows hold? In today’s newsletter I’ll talk this, I’ll do a deep dive into the massive Failed Breakdown we saw last Thursday evening which triggered Fridays/yesterdays 125+ point rally (you need to get used to this setup, if a bear market comes, we’ll be seeing it daily). Finally, I’ll discuss the actionable trade plan for tomorrow.