Hard Rejection At The 200dma, Setup Ruined For Bulls? April 22nd Trade Plan

Today was a statistically extreme, outlier day for ES, putting in a massive 2.75% range almost all to the downside. These are quite uncommon with the last one being March 7th. This in itself isn’t overly notable though: What is, is *where* ES rejected from: Exactly from its 200dma moving average. To put in any type of sustained low, ES had to clear it, and today bears forcefully said no.

As most know, I was looking for a rally to 4500, then pullback. I wrote yesterday: “My general “forecast” is I’d like to see 4492-4500, dip, ideally that dip goes no lower than 4445”. We got the big, lucrative rally, we got the dip, but those supports melted through, and as a result, it makes the immediate bullish setup significantly less attractive.

Today, I am going to discuss how I traded this action (the good, the bad, and the ugly) and I will discuss what this means for the big picture (there is probably more downside ahead)