How Much Lower For SPX? March 13th Plan & Chart
This newsletter is a re-send of the newsletter for Monday, March 13th, which was originally sent out Friday evening, for those who did not receive.
In yesterdays (Thursdays) newsletter, I wrote: “Tomorrow is NFP day. As I very frequently state, the worst, most random/unpredictable days for trading ES are CPI days, FOMC days, and NFP days”. Today certainly fit the bill and for those new to trading SPX/ES, this was a good primer on what data days can look like, as we ping ponged between in an 80 point range randomly all morning, before finally cracking it in the afternoon and getting a trend move to the downside, then late day rally higher.
Sentiment is now extremely bearish, and with some technical reason. On Thursday, ES lost a critical support level, failing back below the core bear market downtrend line from January 2022. I wrote in my last newsletter: “Bears in control below that 3930-35, 3948 blue box. If it weren’t for NFP tomorrow introducing uncertainty, the bigger magnet for this move would be the 3850ish level”. After NFP, we got two rallies to 3935ish before rejecting lower, all the way down to that 3850 target zone, which was the exact low of the day and spot I was looking for a bounce.
The question is, how much more selling is in store, if any? In today’s newsletter, I’ll be addressing this, talking the core big picture structures now in play, then providing the actionable trade plan for what should be another volatile Monday.