Is SPX About To Breakout Yet Again? July 27th Plan
Today was a very standard FOMC session in ES and for those new to trading these, this is what they look like. I wrote yesterday that FOMC sessions “are the most difficult, random, and trap-filled days of the year” adding that FOMC days are defined by traps stating the average day would typically look something like the first move is a trap, and then quite often, the second move also ends up being a trap. This is exactly what happened.
Despite this, there were multiple lucrative setups. I wrote yesterday “The 4580-83 zone is next down to back-test the triangle and a key zone. A safer entry here is a failed break-down - wait for a test of 4580 or under, then reclaim of 4584 to try a long there”. This is precisely what happened after FOMC. We sold down to 4580, then right after the FOMC meeting undercut it by a couple points, reclaimed, then put in a fantastic 25 point squeeze to ~4603 resistance, before rejecting into the second trap move.
Despite all this volatility though, we ultimately ended the end basically unchanged. What now? In today’s newsletter, I’ll be the talking the new pattern forming here, breaking down my core setup (the failed breakdown), then providing the actionable trade plan for tomorrow.