Is SPX About To Make New All Time Highs Yet Again? March 1 Plan

Back on Sunday, I spoke about how for the past 6 weeks in a row, ES has been locked in a highly predictable cycle. As written, the cycle is the following: “ES ends the week strong, the last two weeks were case in point where ES went parabolic on Thursday and Friday. It then starts the week with what I call hangover Monday and Tuesday where ES typically pulls back, or chops brutally from Monday often until Wednesday.” This week has followed this template exactly. We went parabolic last Thursday/Friday, chopped and pulled back from Monday-Wed, and then today, saw a big squeeze higher.

Ultimately though, this entire week has been been mostly playing inside the same range between 5066 and 5108. Why have we seen this? Simple. Last week saw a historic rally (the largest green day last Thursday since November 2022). What comes after big rallies? Price consolidates, and builds a pattern and fills it out, to generate energy and structure for the next big move. I was looking for this today, and I wrote yesterday: “My lean is always to defer to the trend. As long as 5074-66 keep hold, we can push to 5088, which breaks us out to 5106-08”.

This played out well, and we ran to 5108+ by the end of the day. Ultimately though, we are still just consolidating in under the old all time highs, and have been inside the same large range all week. Are we setting up to trend again? In today’s newsletter I’ll talk this, I’ll then continue my ongoing failed breakdown series. Every single large move this week has come off this setup. Finally, I’ll discuss the actionable trade plan for tomorrow.