Is SPX Headed For A Thanksgiving Leg To All Time Highs? Nov 26 Plan.
My last newsletter was entitled “Is A Thanksgiving Week Rally Coming For SPX?”, and ES wasted no time trying this, gapping up at 6pm last night. For nearly all of 2024, I’ve spoken about how ES has been in a broad buy dips regime. In markets, the foremost thing to know is who controls (bulls or bears). If you know this, everything else falls into place; the market becomes incredibly forgiving and will generally even bail out sloppy entries if they are with the trend. The last major dip occurred in the second week of November, and like all of them, it was bought.
In this case ES spent three days last week building a clear accumulation base at the 5886 level as institutions were building a large position and as readers know, I have been long since last Wednesday off this level, in preparation for more upside. I wrote last Wednesday at 3pm: “As long as that level[5886] continues to defend though….we can work up higher to 5972, then 5980-88 which is resistance of the bull flag structure shown in the above big picture chart that we have built since the election week highs”. By Friday’s close, we had hit 5988, and this was resistance of a two week perfect bull flag which I have discussed at length.
Right off the Sunday open last night, we gapped up broke the flag out. I wrote on Friday at 4pm: “Next week is a short holiday week (Thurs and Friday are short days), and we wrapped up this week right around resistance of a major 2 week bull flag” and “Targets from here are 6002, 6017, then 6026. Dip there, then all time highs.” By the open today, we hit 6026 target, overshot, then began the dip to fill the opening gap.
As discussed last week, Thanksgiving week is one of the strongest weeks of the year, green 70% of years, and it started off strong. Can it continue? In today’s newsletter I’ll talk this, I’ll do a deep dive into the setup that caused this monster squeeze from Thursdays most recent low (its an important variant of my core setup which is essential to know). Finally, I’ll discuss the actionable trade plan for tomorrow.