Is The Bear Market Rally Already Over In SPX? October 10th Plan

This is a re-send of tomorrows plan. Original was sent out Friday evening but due to Substack maintenance issues at the time am resending now as some subscribers did not receive

As I wrote in my newsletter on Thursday, Friday was all about about the NFP jobs report. These are often coin-toss days that have a tendency to produce large moves. I wrote: “With NFP tomorrow though, any forecasting is low odds. I will be reacting as per the above plan. NFP can produce large reactions and given the fact we remain in a bear market, this could (and has in the past) produce vertical down days”.

While bulls had a great setup to continue the brand new bear market rally that began on October 1st, NFP had other plans and “vertical down day” it was, putting in a nearly bidless Friday and closing right ~3655 support listed in last newsletter. Despite this, ES still did manage to put in its 1st green week in 4, ending the week right back where it was at 10am Monday at the June lows.

If traders thought this week was volatile - next will be even more so with CPI on Wednesday. The big question is - is the bear market rally already done? I’ll be discussing that in todays newsletter, talking how I traded Friday’s volatility via Thursdays plan (the good, the bad, and the ugly) then talk the actionable plan for Monday as well as targets for what should be a very volatile week.