Is The Relief Bounce In SPX Over? Not So Fast. July 24 Plan
Last week saw the largest red week in ES since April 15th, and the first three consecutive red day since April 19th, an incredible 3 months without a single pullback of more than 3 days, and this is a staggering statistic. Like most three day dips however in the past couple years, this provided an excellent long setup on Friday afternoon/after the Sunday open this week for a relief bounce and possibly, more.
As readers know, I got long at 5542 on Friday afternoon, a setup provided explicitly to readers on Thursday. My lean was that I was looking for a relief bounce to 5604, then 5630. I wrote on Friday at 4pm: “My general lean for Monday is that ES can defend 5542 (and if we do dip, just a quick flush to 5528 then recover). From here, we can try another relief pop to 5585, 5604…If bulls are very motivated, this would get to 5604, dip, then run back to 5630 which is huge resistance”. This could not have played out more perfectly, and today, we tagged 5629.75 high of day, then sold, for an incredible 88 point rally from the Friday 5542 long.
This makes it two green days in a row for ES. With ES selling off 5630 though, is the relief bounce done? In today’s newsletter I’ll talk this, I’ll do a deep dive into the setups(s) that caused this recent rally including the 5542 long, and the 5568 reclaim long provided to readers as well (this is an important variant of my core setup: The Failed Breakdown) and it produced a 80+ point run. Finally, I’ll discuss the actionable trade plan for tomorrow.