Major FOMC Week Incoming: Can The Rally In SPX Continue? March 20th Plan

Note: This is a re-send of the newsletter for Monday, March 20th, that was originally sent out Friday afternoon, for those who did not receive.

In my newsletter on Wednesday, when ES was ~3900, I wrote: “As long as 3885 continues defending, we can ping ping more inside the 3955 to 3885 range, then ultimately try the break upwards with first targets being 3975 then 4010”. ES got there in a hurry, and overnight Thursday, surged to 4009.75. After a 140 point rally with nearly no break, ES had to spend Friday cooling off.

Today was OPEX day, and certainly traded like it. I warned in my last newsletter to expect chop, poor follow through, and trade light, and this certainly described most of today. It is no coincidence where we spent all day chopping today around the 3950 level. We broke out of a week long range Thursday at 3950, rallied 60 points, then back-tested today at 3950. It held into the close

This week will be all about FOMC on Wednesday, and FOMC will decide whether the rally that started March 13th is a bottom or bull trap. In todays newsletter, I’ll discuss my approach to staying out of trouble during chop days, provide my big picture lean for FOMC week, and provide the actionable trade plan for Monday.