Major Multi-Month Breakdown For SPX, Can Bears Hold It? August 16th Plan

As readers recall, I was long into the close yesterday looking for a push to 4515 major resistance followed by a dip and it should be no surprise what happened at 4515 overnight - we dipped yet again, as ES remained stuck in a 1.5 week bi-directional range, the largest of its type since May 2023, and December 2022 before that. Late today - we finally broke the range down.

I wrote yesterday: “We remain in an extremely choppy range and I consider the entire zone between 4515 and 4459 to be chop” and its no coincidence that we rallied to ~4517 overnight, then promptly sold all the way back to 4459, which was where we spent the whole day basing above. This level was a major, multi-month trendline as discussed extensively, and after a full day of chop, it finally cracked and this is the most significant technical breakdown in many months.

ES has now been red though for an incredible 9 of the last 11 days. Can it sustain more downside directly, or will it be a major bear trap? In today’s newsletter I’ll be talking this, then I’ll be going over todays highly complex action and how I traded it via my system (it was one of my busiest sessions this year), and I’ll conclude by providing the actionable trade plan for tomorrow.