More Volatile Week Likely Incoming: July 11th Trade Plan

Last week was a classic “summer trading” week in ES. Low volatility, one directional, and ES did something that it has not managed to do once yet in the 2022 trading year: Put in 5 consecutive green days. These were all small range days though, and as a result ES put in an inside week and as most know, inside weeks represent consolidation, coiling, and typically resolve with larger moves.

This week however (and for the remainder of July), there are far more catalysts incoming with earnings beginning, CPI this Wednesday (a major one), and then FOMC in the last week of June. With 5 green days, daily RSI(5) still quite overbought, and catalysts incoming, risk is certainly more elevated for bulls heading into this week. As most know, I traded very little last week, managing & slightly trading around a swing long from 3755-65 all week. This week will be back to tactical, two way level-to-level trading. In todays newsletter, I’ll be talking my base scenario, risks, and how I’m trading it.