Most Bearish Month of The Year Wraps Up, Better October Ahead for SPX? Oct 3nd Trade Plan
One week ago, my newsletter was entitled: “1 week of Extreme Bearish Seasonality Left For SPX”. This was referencing the fact that the back half of September is seasonally the ugliest part of the year (this is a strong tendency - September 2021, 2020, 2019, and 2018 all saw late Septembers). This week certainly delivered, ending with another large red week, the third in a row.
In my last newsletter I wrote: “3575 has been my target for a few weeks and I do think we get there, but to get there directly 3645 must fail, and it recovered yet again late day”. While I was leaning to ES getting more relief pop 1st, ES decided late day Friday to break down one of the longest, choppiest, difficult consolidations of the year with a flush into the close.
While we remain in a firm bear market, and there are no signs of this changing anytime soon, there are some elements brewing for a relief leg. In today’s newsletter, I’ll be talking how I traded Friday’s brutal chop via Thursdays plan (discussing my stop outs in particular, as well as an example of my core trading setup), I will then be discussing what the trigger is for a October relief rally and the plan for Monday.