Today, we finally arrived at my multi-week upside target in ES and has been the most lucrative run of the year by a large margin. Every day for the past month, I have written: “5443-46: First major new all time highs target, resistance of the upper lime green line in the below chart, which forms a massive megaphone pattern that encompasses all the action since February. This is a magnet now”. Today, we arrived.
As readers know, I was long heading into today’s CPI, from 5342 yesterday, writing at the close yesterday: “I am holding my 10% long runner from this mornings 5342 failed breakdown discussed above and letting it ride.” Right after CPI, we lifted off, and this evolved into a 100+ point trade. Why did we squeeze? Technical analysis 101: We spent the last 4 days building a clear bull flag, and late day yesterday, we broke it out. I affirmed this yesterday by writing: “We spent the last week building a base between 5342-5372 or so (bull flag as I tweeted today) and today, we finally broke it out. The bull case is therefore simple: That this just keeps running….This breakout targets the same targets I’ve had all week: 5396, 5421, then 5443-46”. By 10am this morning, we clipped 5443-46 and we then spent until FOMC basing exactly here, followed by an post-FOMC pullback
Now that the multi-week target has hit, Now what? In today’s newsletter I’ll talk this, I’ll do a deep dive into the setup that got me long yesterday into the 5340s for today’s 100+ point rally, then I’ll discuss the actionable trade plan for tomorrow.