[Re-Send] Multi-Month Breakdown Follows Through In SPX. Relief Bounce Time Now? August 17th Plan
This is a re-send. The original newsletter sent out 20 minutes ago did not have the chart attached. Apologies!
As written yesterday, August has certainly been a unique month by 2023 standards as there have been 12 trading days in August and an incredible 10 of them were red. To make matters worse for bulls, yesterday ES its most significant support level: Its core rising trendline from the March 2023 lows, which was at 4461-68. As I wrote yesterday: “Bear case tomorrow: Simple and bears control under 4461-68 zone now”. Bear case it was, and we continue to grind down all day.
As readers know, this triggered shorts for me yesterday late day for a breakdown trade. While it took its time, this finally followed through this afternoon and I wrote yesterday that following the short: “My loose lean is we can make our way to 4438, perhaps 4430 then try a larger bounce there. If 4461-68 reclaims, bottom is probably in.” This played out nicely and what did we do today? Bears managed to hold to 4461-68, and we sold down to 4438, then ~4430 target before a late day bounce, then more downside.
After 10 of 12 days red now, can bulls get a relief bounce, and where? In today’s newsletter I’ll be talking this, then I’ll breaking down my approach to trading choppy, trap filled price action like today. Finally, I’ll be discussing the actionable trade plan for tomorrow.