SPX Is Coiled Up For A Big Move. What Way? April 9 Plan

In my last newsletter (and effectively, almost every newsletter this year) I have talked about what I call the defining theme of 2024. This is the fact that ES, since January, has been in what I call a “buy every dip regime”. This refers to the fact that while ES has had many dips of all shapes and sizes (last week we saw -115 points in 3 hours), they all programmatically get bought. These buys occur on a schedule. Since the first week of January, this schedule has been every two red days gets bought, and on very rare occasions, three.

Of course, this won’t last forever. But one can just trade it until it stops, and I have. As readers know, I’ve been long since 5195ish, as provided in Thursdays newsletter when I wrote: “On a short-term evening basis, if we can tag something like 5190 then reclaim 5196 I may also look long”. Today provided a dip buy, and I wrote in yesterdays newsletter: “The ultra bull case on Monday would see ES probably not even lose 5246. If we can base above this Sunday and especially see any little grabs below that are bought, I’d be open to adding in the base Sunday eve/Monday morning”. We got exactly this (tested 5246 this morning), and rallied to ~5270 first target, then based out all day between 5246-5270. We tested 5246 3x, providing multiple buys.

While today was slow, this week has plenty of volatility still incoming with CPI on Wednesday, and there will be massive moves. We are basing for it. Bulls need to defend the critical March 20th FOMC breakout back-test ~5230 to retain control and keep the run going, as discussed extensively. Can they do it? In today’s newsletter I’ll talk this, I’ll do a deep dive into the setup that got me long Thursday for the 70+ point rally (its a variant of my core setup), and I’ll discuss my actionable trade plan for tomorrow.