SPX Just Hit Its Biggest Resistance Of 2024. Can It Break Higher? June 17 Plan

NOTE: This is a resend of the newsletter for Monday June 17th, originally sent out on Friday at 4pm, for those who did not receive.

This week saw something that only happens every few months in ES: We hit my “macro target”. While I am a level to level day trader, I always include for readers a macro target - the broad level for which we are likely to trend towards. For many weeks since early May, every single day in this newsletter I have made that clear: Its the 5513 level (September contract now) which is resistance of a perfect, 3 month “megaphone” chart pattern. We hit it after CPI on Wednesday.

I affirmed this on Tuesday before Wednesdays CPI/FOMC, by writing: “5511-5513: First major new all time highs target, resistance of the upper lime green line in the below chart, which forms a massive “megaphone pattern” that encompasses all the action since February. This is a magnet now.” I was positioned long for this as readers know, and we hit 5518 high of day after CPI, and since then, we have been basing out below it.

I wrote yesterday: “After yesterdays monster “Mode 1” squeeze, we are building out a new structure as expected and the range is generally 5512 to 5483….As long as it holds (with any traps below grabbed quickly) ES can build a base 5483-5512. This would then setup the next leg higher”. Today, we spent most the session in this range with a few quick failed breakdowns below 5483 which triggered longs

We are forming a new chart pattern now, right beneath this massive resistance zone for the past couple days. In today’s newsletter I’ll talk what it is. I’ll also discuss some recent examples of my core setup: The failed breakdown (it is critical to see as many examples of this setup as possible, in as many different contexts as possible, to fully internalize it and recognize them in real time). Finally, I’ll talk the actionable trade plan for Monday.