SPX Just Put In The Biggest Green Week of The Year. Peak, Or More To Come? March 25 Plan

A week ago, ES did something noteworthy, and it put in two red weeks in a row for the first time since the October 2023 bottom. While this was noteworthy, what came after, was not, and this dip was bought as every dip has been since late October. In this case though, the dip was not simply bought, but it was bought to make a very substantial new all time high and the 11th new all time high we have made this year. This in turn, was the largest green week of the year for ES.

The energy for this breakout - and its cause - was a two week long, straight out the textbook bullish triangle. I affirmed this on Tuesday prior to breakout by writing: “We are forming a triangle with 5184 support and 5246-50 resistance. As long as bulls can defend supports on any FOMC dips, my lean is it breaks out to 5258, 5276-80, 5295-5300”. We got to 5295-5300, overshot, and then spent quite literally the entirety of day glued mostly inside that 5295-5300 range, for one of the slowest, tightest range days of the year as the market remains “exhausted” following the monster squeeze.

Here is the important thing now - two week pattern breakouts like we had Wednesday rarely end with a one, or two day rally. Has a new (and sustained) next leg up begun? In today’s newsletter, I’ll talk this, I’ll go into detail on my trailing stop methodology (which kept me long from 5203 Tuesday until early today), then I’ll discuss the actionable trade plan for Monday.