There is a major battle now underway for the 200 day moving average and one that has big implications for what the rest of the month looks like at minimum. After spending 9 days above it (its now around 4485 in ES), ES lost it yesterday, then late day today (after a trap filled day of level-to-level ping pong) managed to recover it as of writing. While this is certainly good news, and it lines up with what one would expect seasonally going forward (April is an exceptionally bullish month seasonally) its not “all clear” yet.
Recall that in February, ES also cleared its 200dma, lost it, reclaimed it for a couple days then plunged to new lows. Today, I’m going to break down where I think we go, a new pattern I see forming, and the 1 major warning sign bulls need to watch for