The Largest Green Week of 2024 Just Concluded In SPX. Cool-Off Coming? Nov 11 Plan
NOTE: This is a resend of the newsletter for Monday November 11th, originally sent out on Friday at 4pm, for those who did not receive.
The results are in and this week officially was the largest green week of 2024 and this is a particularly impressive statistic, because its November of a year where ES is already up ~20% year to date. That means its a bullish move, relative to lots of other very bullish moves. This Wednesdays rally was the largest post-election rally in the history of the S&P 500.
The rally was so staggering that ES only had a single one hour pullback all week, on Wednesday. As readers know, this weeks long was the best of the year for me and it was triggered on Monday by the core accumulation pattern of large institutions (and my core setup): The Failed Breakdown. When institutions want to accumulate, they flush lows, eat up the liquidity below, recover then are off to the races. We then follow them. I wrote Monday at 4pm: “There is an active failed breakdown present where we lost the Thursday lows at 5733, flushed it, and recovered”, and I was looking 6000+ yesterday, and we got there.
Today, the bonanza continued. I wrote yesterday at 4pm: “My general lean is always to defer to the trend. Bulls want to hold 6000, 5979 lowest tomorrow on dips. This would keep the parabolic move live, which would target 6016, then 6035-38”. Overnight, we got another buyable micro-dip, and we continued up today, tagging 6035-38 by 2pm.
After a 300 point rally from Monday evening, is ES ready to pullback? In today’s newsletter I’ll talk this, I’ll do a complete overview of the structure of this rally as it was caused (Monday) and perpetuated (Wednesday) by two quite different examples of my core setup: The Failed Breakdown. I want to talk about the difference between a high, and low quality Failed Breakdown in this regard. Finally, I’ll discuss the actionable trade plan for Monday.