The Most Bullish Day Of The Year Is Incoming. July 1st Plan
NOTE: This is a resend of the newsletter for Monday July 1st, originally sent out on Friday June 28th, for those who did not receive.
Since Tuesday, I’ve started this newsletter everyday talking about one singular level: 5519. I’ve called this level the “ATM Machine” level all week, because in the last week alone, it tested/failed broke down over 12 times, and each of these times, produced a solid multi-level rally, resulting in well over 100 points paid out cumulatively. The last test of the level was on Wednesday evening at 9pm, and triggered longs for the biggest rally yet which got to 5578-82 target this morning. What did we do into the close today? Yet again, flushed 5519 quickly, reclaimed, squeezed, then closed right here.
I wrote Wednesday at 4pm (before the rally): “My general lean is always to defer to the trend. As long as 5516-19 keeps hold we can fill out that 5519-5542 range more, then breakout which would target 5555-60, 5566, then 5575+”. This could not have played out more perfectly. On Wednesday evening, we hit 5516-19 exactly, triggering longs. By 830AM this morning, we were into the 5570s. There was another reason though why this rally was larger than the others we saw this week: Because ES had spent the week forming a bull flag, and we broke out yesterday.
It is why I wrote yesterday: “We are bull flagging. As long as the range remains in tact, we push to 5557-60, 5566, then 5578-82”. By 10:30AM today, we tagged 5578-82, and this was an incredible move, further demonstrating the power simple technicals have to cut through the enormity of noise out there. We hit this target, then sold right back down to that ATM Machine level at 5519.
We are now heading into July, and July 1st is the most bullish day of the year, green *90% of years* over the last 20 years. Can it play out this year? In today’s newsletter I’ll talk this (the answer is not as clear as it sounds), I’ll do a deep dive into the setup that got me long Wednesday evening at 5516-19 for what turned into a 65+ point rally (hint: Its my core setup that I trade daily). Finally, I’ll discuss the actionable trade plan for Monday.