Three Major Upcoming Data Catalysts Are Set To Break The Stalemate In SPX. Dec 7 Plan
November is infamously the second most bullish month of the year, and it delivered, with nearly a full month of relentless upside, rallying 450+ points with only 4 minor red days the entire month. December, while also bullish seasonally, is less so, and the strength is typically back month weighted (the infamous “Santa Rally”).
As a result of this 450+ point rally, ES has been in “hangover mode” since November 20th, stuck in one of the most resilient ranges of 2023. As I wrote yesterday “We remain in pure chop 4550-56 to 4575-80”. ES has tested support of this zone 30 times and held. On the other side of it, ES has attempted 5 breakouts of the zone since November 20th, which all faded. As written on Monday, I was looking for another breakout attempt, writing: “My general lean is as long as 4555 keeps holding, we can fill out this range then ultimately push to 4597, 4609, then 4618 target” and we held 4555 yesterday and managed to run to 4597 today, before failing *again* back to the 4556 magnet
ES is having difficulty committing to moves not only because it is basing after a 450+ point rally, but also because there are huge data catalysts incoming. Within the next 5 days, we have NFP, CPI, and FOMC. The three biggest catalysts for ES - back to back. What are we setting up? In today’s newsletter I’ll talk this, go over in more detail the setup that got me long yesterday at 4556 for the run we had, then discuss the actionable trade plan for tomorrow.