Tightest Range Week of 2023 For SPX; Breakout Incoming? April 24th Plan

NOTE: This is a re-send of the newsletter for Monday April 24th, originally sent out Friday at 4pm, for those who did not receive it.

I concluded my newsletter Thursday by saying: “Also note tomorrow is OPEX day - these are notoriously horrible for trading and I will be taking it light”. This certainly described much Friday’s action well, with ES spending almost the entire day ping ponging randomly between 4140-4155 before.

As I have written for weeks, ES remains stuck in what I call an extreme dip buy regime, with every dip algorithmically bought. The problem though? The dip buys have increasingly limited follow through, so much so that not only was the last week the tightest range week of 2022, but April has been the tightest range month since early 2020. ES is clearly coiling up for a significant move, perhaps in early May.

While this has been a choppy week, it has been fantastic conditions for failed breakdown traders as readers know, with ES presenting multiple this week. In today’s newsletter, I will provide a visual overview/education of all the failed breakdown setups (my core pattern), talk the larger pattern forming, then provide the actionable plan for Monday.