We Are About To Enter The Holiday Trade In SPX. What To Expect? November 22 Plan

Thanksgiving week is a seasonally bullish week - green 8 of the 10 last years. The technicals agreed so far, and from last Wednesday until yesterday, ES had built a textbook bullish triangle pattern ~4536 resistance as discussed extensively. As readers recall, I have been long since Friday at 4511 positioning for this move, and yesterday, we finally got the upside breakout and squeezed, perfectly coinciding with the start of Thanksgiving week.

Today, the plan was to sell off to backtest this triangle, then try a bounce, and we saw exactly this. I wrote yesterday: “My general lean is that as long as the 4536-43 cluster holds on the backtest, we can base build then work up to 4577-80”. What did we do today? We started the day with a dip that took us down to 4536-43, then put in good multi-hour bounce and built a base the rest of the day.

We are now about to enter holiday trading with tomorrow the final full day of trading for the rest of the week. Seasonally, this period is strong (about 83% green historically) but with this much rally into it, will this year fail? In today’s newsletter, I’ll talk this, breakdown one of my favorite, highest win rate setups, then talk the plan for tomorrow.