Will SPX Rally For The 5th Thursday In A Row? June 22nd Plan

I concluded my last newsletter by writing: “We had a great rally last week and ES is likely in for some tactical range building now”…adding “I expect now that we likely be in for a few more days like today - tactical, likely rangebound action likely”. This certainly described today and it was a complex, choppy session before a late day squeeze.

What was the clue today would be choppy? Apart from routine correction/consolidation which is normal after after a rally like we had last week, the last 4 weeks in a row now have followed the exact same template, which I have discussed extensively. ES squeezes on Thursday/Friday, dips on Monday/Tuesday, and Wednesday is often brutally choppy. This pattern will obviously not last forever and will fail, but this general tendency does apply on average over a large sample of weeks.

ES has now put in 3 red days in a row for the first time since May 4th. Will the Thursday rally bail out ES? In today’s newsletter I’ll talk this, then I’ll discuss my approach to trading highly difficult, choppy days like today. I’ll then provide the actionable trade plan for tomorrow.