Adam Mancini's S&P 500 (SPX/ES Futures) Trade Companion

Adam Mancini's S&P 500 (SPX/ES Futures) Trade Companion

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Adam Mancini's S&P 500 (SPX/ES Futures) Trade Companion
Adam Mancini's S&P 500 (SPX/ES Futures) Trade Companion
Will The New Year Start Off Better For SPX Bulls Than It Ended? Jan 2nd Plan

Will The New Year Start Off Better For SPX Bulls Than It Ended? Jan 2nd Plan

Dec 31, 2024
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Adam Mancini's S&P 500 (SPX/ES Futures) Trade Companion
Adam Mancini's S&P 500 (SPX/ES Futures) Trade Companion
Will The New Year Start Off Better For SPX Bulls Than It Ended? Jan 2nd Plan
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Today was the final day of trading in 2024 and the holiday season brought unusually high volatility. It was a rough go for those who trade things like seasonality (which averages as a slow, steady grind up over the holiday) - something I constantly caution against. Price and only price can tell us what institutions are doing now, in real-time, so we can follow. Things like seasonals tell us what price did in the past, which is useless to us.

For this holiday season, the basic plan and logic was clear. We broke down a 1.5 week flag on FOMC day December 18th, at 6095-6100 putting in bears in full control. However, it would need to back-test first before any resumption of selling. Its why I wrote on December 20th: “My general lean is that ES can make its way up to the back-test of 6099”. We got there by Christmas Eve right at the close. I then wrote on Christmas Eve: “The obvious zone to try shorts would be the 6098 major backtest zone”. We sold from 6099 down to a 5920 low yesterday.

There were numerous setups between 6099 and the current lows however, and yesterdays selloff in particular was caused by ES losing a critical support at 5986 which was a major low zone from last Friday. I wrote on Monday at 4pm that: “If 5986 fails, we will sell hard again like today.” Yesterday morning, we lost 5987 and sold. As written yesterday, in order for bulls to see any sustained bounce today, they would need to recover 5987, “For tomorrow things are relatively simple and the range is 5928-32 to 5987 and trend should evolve above or below that. In order for bulls to get another leg up or squeeze, 5987 must reclaim”. Bulls were unable to do so, and we spent today mostly ping ponging near support of this range.

While bulls managed to stave off new lows for today, bears retain big picture control since FOMC Day. What will the start of January bring? In today’s newsletter I’ll talk this, I’ll do a deep dive into two fantastic short setups we’ve had since Friday that were provided to readers. These were a great example of my main bearish setup - the Breakdown Short - and you’ll need to know this for any coming downtrend/bear market. Finally, I’ll discuss the actionable trade plan for Monday.

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