Will The Second Half of August Finally See SPX Trend? August 14th Plan

As I’ve discussed before, August has certainly brought a character change to ES. Recall July is the second most bullish month of the year seasonally (green 90% of the past 10 years) and it certainly tracked this year, putting in three green weeks in a row and rallying 220 points. August began by putting in the first red week in three, followed by a choppier grind down this week.

Important to remember though that August is not a bearish month seasonally, but rather a consolidation month, green 60% of the last 20 years with a 0.1% average return. Typically, this is divided into first half choppy grind down, and second half strength, and this has certainly been the theme with ES making slight new lows then squeezing all week. This basically fit today, and I wrote yesterday: “My general lean for tomorrow is that ES can defend that yellow flag support (4469-67 lowest), then reclaim 4493 to try back up to 4509+ again”. After hours of chop today just above 4469-67 which managed to get to 4493 first target up, which was the high of day.

What now? This week ES set 4 lower lows all of which were bought, then subsequently sold, rinse and repeat. Will this weeks low fail as well? I’ll talk this today, then I’ll be doing a deep dive on the failed breakdown setup (my core pattern) as this week was the best week *this year* for them. I’ll then be talking the actionable trade plan for Monday.