Will The "Thanksgiving Rally" Fail This Year? November 22nd Plan
Nearly every day for the past week, I have discussed the fact that ES has been locked in a tight range. Today is no different - and we have now put in 7 daily candles, stacked side by side, all around the 3950 mid-point.
Traders have been spoiled - we had a 215 point selloff after FOMC on November 2nd, which progressed into a 300 point rally into November 10th. With major catalysts like FOMC and CPI behind the market, ES has gone into resting mode, consolidating for an incredible 7 days to digest the recent extreme squeeze. As traders know, all consolidations result in breakout moves and typically a few day trend at least.
Bulls do have seasonals at their back this week, with the thanksgiving week (mostly after Tuesday) being green slightly over 75% of the time over the past 20 years. Seasonals however, are a tendency - not a certainty. In today’s newsletter, I’ll discuss this, talk the pattern forming/targets, some actionable setups, and the plan for rest of week.