Will There Be A Post-Thanksgiving Hangover For SPX? Nov 23rd & 24 Plan
At the start of yesterdays newsletter, I talked about how were entering into a seasonally bullish three day stretch in ES. Specifically, the Wednesday - Friday of Thanksgiving week has been green 83% of all years since 1950. Today started off on track, but as always, it wasn’t just the seasonals causing it, but rather simple technical analysis.
Specifically, on Monday ES broke out a textbook triangle pattern at 4536-40, and yesterday, we back-tested it (twice to be specific), which triggered me into longs. I wrote in yesterdays newsletter: “My general lean is as long as we keep holding 4536, we can base build 4536-68, then head up to 4580”. We saw exactly this today with extreme precision. After Nvidia earnings yesterday, ES sold off to 4536 exactly, triggering the bullish pathway and we ran to 4580.5 which was the high of day.
We are now entering into two days of holiday trading. We are heading into this in an extraordinary position - going the entire month of November with only two proper red days. What is in store for the next two days, and most importantly, do we sell off after? In today’s newsletter I’ll talk this, go in deep detail on the setup that triggered today’s long (its easy to learn) and then discuss the actionable trade plan for the next 2 days.