Will Todays SPX Dip Get Bought Like All The Others? Feb 21 Plan.

Way back on Sunday February 9th - right off the futures open at 6pm - something important happened. ES put in my core setup, and the most powerful footprint of institutional accumulation: The Failed Breakdown. Recall we gapped down violently that day, and sold under 6020. All rallies start with a trap (its how institutions enter the market to accumulate), and this was no different. Minutes after we lost 6020, ES recovered it. I was long - as updated here daily - from this trigger until today and everyday since then, ES has been in “buy dips” mode, and for 8 trading days in a row, all dips were promptly bought in ES.

I wrote back on Friday February 7th at 4pm: “For Monday, bulls will want to hold 6016-20. This would allow ES to work back up to range resistance, starting with 6066-70 which is the 1st gateway, then 6093, then onto 6129.” On February 9th Sunday, we got this flush of 6020 down to 6016 or so, and by the end of last week, we tagged 6129. After this big breakout late last week, ES spent this week consolidating sideways, mostly between 6154 and 6120 and we ping ponged this range all week, before attempting a breakout late day yesterday.

This morning however, after 8 days of non-stop upside, ES finally lost a support to trigger an actionable dip. I wrote yesterday at 4pm: “Any lower than 6145, and todays late day breakout was premature, and we need to collapse back to range support or lower.” We lost 6145 around 930AM today, and down we went to low 6100s.

While this dip was larger than what we’ve seen for the last two weeks, it was - as usual - bought. I wrote yesterday at 4pm: “The only entries that would interest me here would be if we can tag 6116 or 6109, and recover the Tuesday 6118 low.” This morning we flushed below Thursdays 6118 low, recovered it, then rallied.

Was this another one off dip to start the next leg up? In today’s newsletter I’ll talk this, I’ll do a deep dive into how my three setup types interact with each other (we’ve seen all three over the last week). Finally, I’ll discuss the actionable trade plan for tomorrow.